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Electronic retailing (e-tailing) in India is expected to grow fivefold, from $59 billion in 2022 to $300 billion by 2030, driven by ‘mass’ consumers who look for value at affordable prices, according to a report by Redseer Strategy Consultants.

The report estimates a 6- to 8-fold growth in third-party logistics (3PL) shipments between 2022 and 2030—from 2 billion to 13 billion-17 billion.

According to the report, greater adoption of ecommerce in Tier II + cities, increasing number of mass consumers, and increased 3PL serviceability are propelling shipment volumes. As a result, shipment volumes are expected to grow disproportionately relative to GMV growth.

On the basis of average share of ecommerce 3PL shipments during January-August this year, Meesho has emerged as the largest ecommerce 3PL shipment contributor in India. Flipkart, Ajio, and Amazon are the other top players. The rest of the shipments are driven by vertical ecommerce platforms, D2C brands, and smaller e-tailers.

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“3PL has emerged as an indispensable enabler for mass-focused horizontals, large verticals and direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands. Collaborating with 3PL for logistics requirements expedites market entry, drives growth, and addresses the challenges of lumpy demand, thereby optimizing logistics investments per shipped unit,” said Mohit Rana, Partner, Redseer Strategy Consultants.

As 3PL scales, the cost per shipment is projected to decrease from Rs 60 in 2023 to Rs 47 by 2030.

The report identifies demand aggregation in smaller cities and policy adjustments as pivotal factors contributing to cost savings, thus enabling optimal utilisation of resources.