Though the World Health Organisation lifted the emergency tag on COVID-19, global spending on the disease, including research to improve the understanding of long-term complications and the presence of post-acute sequels of the killer virus, is expected to touch $500 billion by 2027, pharma major Dr Reddy’s Laboratories said in its latest annual report.
The report, released on Monday, further said the health systems have responded well by developing vaccines with significant efficacy, safety, and speed. However, with the inconsistent use of vaccines and therapeutics, the next few years are not without uncertainties, especially with the periodic emergence of infections and viral variants.
“At the same time, research has been ongoing to improve the understanding of the long-term complications and the presence of post-acute sequels of COVID-19. Considering this, it is believed that COVID-19 will still be a major driver for global medicine spending in the coming years. Global spending on COVID-19 is expected to touch around $500 billion in the seven years leading to 2027,” Dr Reddy’s said.
In the last few years, the pharmaceutical sector has been sailing steadily despite the uncertainties and turbulence caused by COVID-19. With advances in information and research, the outlook for the sector is getting clearer with more predictable challenges ahead, it added.
Talking about the global pharmaceutical outlook, Dr Reddy’s quoting clinical research services provider IQVIA’s recent report on medicine usage, said excluding COVID-19, the global medicine market is expected to grow at 3% to 6% CAGR through 2027, reaching about $1.9 trillion.
The highest volume growth over the next five years is expected in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, India, and Africa/Middle East, largely driven by population growth. Growth in developed countries will be led by innovative medicines that should offset losses due to patent expiries and loss of exclusivities.
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Oncology, the leading therapy area in terms of global spending, is forecast to grow at higher than earlier predicted rates, with an estimated growth of 13% to 16% CAGR as it faces limited losses of exclusivity in the coming years while another key growth area for medicines is biotechnology, which is estimated to represent 35% of global spending in the next five years, the drug maker said in the annual report.
Another major uncertainty will be the potential impact of economic factors on countries’ policies and budgeting. Global economic activity is experiencing a sharper-than-expected slowdown, it said.
“COVID-19, followed by geopolitical tensions, weighs heavily on the outlook, which depends on how government regulators across the world calibrate their monetary and fiscal policies,” Dr Reddy’s said.
Edited by Kanishk Singh
